Our Water, Our World – Farms or Famine: The Coming Agricultural Crisisby Paul Pickett This is a story about climate change. It's a story that is unfolding as we speak, and will unfold for the rest of our lives. It's likely our children and grandchildren will be part of this story and will struggle with the consequences of decisions we're making or not making now. And it's a story with an uncertain ending, like one of those "choose your ending" books. In the 1980s, when global warming and climate change first began to appear in the public discussion, we were told this story: higher carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will mean bumper crops for agriculture. The theory was that plants would grow better as CO2 increased, and warmer temperatures would help, too. Recent research and events are now showing us that this isn't the true story – only a tiny piece of the picture, not always true, and of minor significance compared to other impacts. The story is now emerging that there are changes forcing our agricultural system into a period of great crisis. Specifically, our ability to grow our food may be in danger. And, even in our prosperous and food-rich corner of the planet, a collapse of the global food-production system could touch us all. Climate change, urbanization, population growth, and our reliance on fossil fuels are putting pressure on the food supply. A global food crisis has been widely reported over the last couple years, with prices of staples, such as wheat and rice, rising rapidly throughout the world. The pressures that have produced this crisis are likely only to get worse with climate change. Fossil fuel dependency The "Green Revolution" has been widely attributed to the use of motorized farm equipment, pesticides, and fertilizers. All three of these rely heavily on fossil fuels. As a result, conventional agriculture has a large carbon footprint, larger overall than transportation. This is not sustainable. In Cuba, after cheap Russian oil was cut off, a major shift occurred toward organic small-scale agriculture with reduced use of petroleum-fueled machinery. In Ecuador, I spoke with indigenous farmers who were learning organic farming because the cost of petroleum-derived fertilizers was greater than the price of their produce. A global shift to low-carbon agriculture is necessary, but the transition may be difficult, especially if the shift is forced rapidly by events, such as rising fuel prices and carbon regulation. Competition for water Fresh potable water is becoming increasingly scarce, and water insecurity is rising globally. Irrigated agriculture depends on cheap - and usually subsidized - water supplies, while urban areas are willing to pay premium prices for water. Although in many cases water conservation can free up reserves, there's still enormous pressure to take agricultural land out of production and shift it to municipal supply. For example, in Southern California, the City of San Diego is buying out farmers in the Imperial Valley to shift water from farms to the city water supply. Competition for land Arable land, like water, is a resource with finite supply. In many areas prime farmland is gobbled up by spreading urban development. The demand for farmlands results in deforestation and the cultivation of marginal lands. This results in a shrinking base of food productivity. Competition from non-food agriculture Historically, regional food shortages have often occurred when profitable export crops, such as cotton, sugar, or coffee, were grown instead of food. With the interest in alternative fuels, the pressure has increased to grow crops for biofuels. The increase in food prices in the last couple years were traced in part to the demand for biofuels. Farms that produced food have shifted to crops for producing energy. Commentators have not missed the irony that the demand to produce more fuel for gas-guzzling SUVs is resulting in more expensive food for the poor. Climate instability and food supply disruption A major anticipated effect of climate change is a greater range of extreme weather events and regional climatic shifts. Studies are already showing increased droughts and extreme storms, both of which can destroy a year's crops. Also, areas are seeing severe shifts in climate resulting in the desertification of areas formerly sufficient in water, such as in Australia. The crisis in Darfur has its roots not only in ethnic conflict, but also in migration due to changing climate that eliminated the ability of areas to produce crops and livestock. Analysts believe that we are likely to see more mass migrations of "climate refugees" as global warming takes hold. Awareness is growing that climate change is a national security issue. Water and food insecurity can result in mass migrations, civil unrest, disease, and war. Policy specialists and scientists are discussing this issue and looking for ways to identify and avoid problems. The Obama administration has broadened its definition of national security and acknowledges the linkage of food, energy, and climate change policy. The global environmental and economic crises we're facing has many facets. Global food security should be a top priority. Even if we are secure in our region here, problems in other areas can still come back to bite us. And besides that, it's just common human decency that all people should have access to affordable food. Paul Pickett is an environmental engineer, Public Utility District Commissioner, and regular columnist for Green Pages.
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