The Political Road Aheadby Stephen L. Beck By the time you read this, the 2000 election may be already past. As I write, though, the election is still to come. This puts us on opposite sides of an interesting divide. This is the tightest Presidential election in my political memory -- this close to every election day I can remember, I've been able to guess the winner pretty easily. Right now, though, I simply have no idea. Since I'm on the wrong side of this divide, you've got the drop on me -- you know, and I don't. Still, ignorance hasn't kept me from speaking up yet, so I won't let it stop me now. Here goes: Congress Whether Bush or Gore is, as you read this, now the President-elect, there are some touchy negotiations ahead with Congress. The Presidential election was a close one, with no real coat-tails for the winner. Whether or not the majority switched sides in either house , then, both houses are still so closely divided that strong party discipline is needed in the House to maintain a majority, and neither side has a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. As for the President-elect? Let's look at both possibilities: President Bush Alec Baldwin is hiding in Europe, presumably. Bush is gracious in victory; he has said that the nation must unite and work together. He is assembling his Cabinet. He will appoint seasoned Republicans to the top four posts; Treasury, in particular, will be headed by someone who signals stability and confidence to Wall Street and to the Federal Reserve. We'll see an oil man or two, probably at Commerce and Interior. At EPA, though, I expect to see a "surprise": someone who has the respect of several national environmental groups. Neither Interior nor EPA will be led by another Watt or Gorsuch-Burford -- Bush doesn't want any "lightning-rods" on the environment. Meanwhile, lots of Democratic staffers in the Federal government are now scrambling for work. Where will they go? Some will find work in business, some will stay on in Washington as lobbyists, some will return to the states and become lobbyists at state capitols, some will return to the grassroots whence they came. If this scenario comes true, then, we may have more folks in town to help us with our local and statewide environmental battles. You should, by the way, expect to be inundated with special solicitations from national environmental groups, asking for emergency donations to combat the impending dangerous programs of the Bush administration. (Send them money if you want, but please don't forget to support your local environmental journal!) Bush may have a slim majority in both houses of Congress. If so, he will have to work with chairs of powerful committees from his own party. They will assure him friendly cooperation -- but they will let him know that they are powers unto themselves to be respected. President Gore Alec Baldwin feels safe in the USA. Gore is gracious in victory; he has said that the nation must unite and work together. He is assembling his Cabinet. He will appoint seasoned Democrats, perhaps even one or two Clinton holdovers, to the top four posts; Treasury will be headed by someone who signals stability and confidence to Wall Street and the Federal Reserve. We'll see someone much like Babbitt, maybe even Babbitt himself, at Interior. Lots of Democratic administration staffers can stay on with the new administration, but they see this as an opportunity to move up or laterally to more interesting jobs. There will be some departures of personnel, of course, but nothing on the scale we'd see with a change in political parties. There is some giddy optimistic talk going around about expected new environmental initiatives, now that the author of Earth in the Balance is President. This giddiness will die down by summer, as the political dealings with entrenched interests in Congress make it clear how little in the way of new environmental initiatives can get through. The political will on the environment from the Gore administration will be, I expect, dedicated in the main to rearguard actions, where the best possible outcome is a stalemate. Gore's main environmental constituency will be the large, national environmental groups; his relations with grassroots movements will be as problematic as Clinton's have been. What About Nader? I expect Nader to poll well, though I have no guess whether he'll reach five percent. Whatever the numbers, the practical questions are, first, whether Nader's showing will in fact motivate the Greens to build a more comprehensive national party, and second, what sort of relationship the Greens will have with the Democrats for the next four years. The answers to these practical questions depend on how Greens, both individually and collectively, answer questions of political identity. Is this a true political party? An electoral protest movement? Where are our loyalties? These questions will find answers, by and by, over the next several years. Stephen L. Beck is an Editor of the Green Pages.
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